XRPUSD 231024 daily chart
Bitcoin fails to break above $68,000 as spot ETF inflows slow down
BTC bucked the broader market trend on Tuesday while XRP extended its decline from $0.55.
On Monday, October 21st, the US BTC Spot ETF market recorded net inflows of $294.3 million, while iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported an impressive net inflow of $329 million. .
However, the US BTC spot ETF market may see its seven-day streak of inflows come to an end on Tuesday, October 22nd. According to Farside Investors:
ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $134.7 million (previous day: -$6.1 million). Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $8.8 million. (PD: +$5.9 million). VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) reported net inflows of $3.8 million (PD: -$7.6 million).
Excluding IBIT flow data, the US BTC spot ETF market saw net outflows of $122.1 million.
Despite Tuesday’s trend, ETFStore President Nate Geraci said of the recent surge in IBIT demand:
“It’s getting ridiculous… The iShares Bitcoin ETF has gained *$1.5 billion* in the last 6 business days. That $1.5 billion alone puts it in the top 5 (out of 570 ETFs) of 2024. But of course… a total of *$23 billion* has been spent. Are there really still opponents?”
Fed, presidential election, and BTC trends
In the short term, the key factors will be investor sentiment regarding the US presidential election and the Fed’s interest rate movements.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November rose from 86.5 (October 21st) to 91.0 (October 22nd). However, strong U.S. economic data has weakened investors’ bets that the Fed will cut rates in December, falling from 85.5% (October 15th) to 68.3% (October 22nd).
Expectations for a soft landing for the US economy and expectations for Fed rate cuts in November and December could push Bitcoin above $70,000. Conversely, strong US economic data and bets on a Fed single rate cut in Q4 2024 could push BTC below $65,000.
The upcoming US presidential election adds further uncertainty. US Vice President Kamala Harris recently expressed support for the US digital assets sector. However, crypto investors are likely to prefer Donald Trump. After pledging to fire Chairman Gensler on his first day in office, President Trump could end the SEC’s regulatory governance through enforcement.
The firing of the SEC chairman could spur cryptocurrency adoption and support a move above BTC’s all-time high of $73,808.
Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations
On Tuesday, October 22nd, BTC rose 0.12%, partially reversing its 2.13% loss from the previous session, to end at $67,308.
Wednesday, Oct. 23 Trends in U.S. politics, SEC activity, and U.S. BTC spot ETF market flows should be considered in the short term.
