Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing some volatility as the calendar enters the final quarter of the year. The recent expiration of $1.35 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options has not caused any volatility in the market. Prices could rise as investors rebalance their portfolios ahead of the U.S. election.
Market changes after option expiration
In particular, the expiration of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum has traditionally been a major factor in price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. This pattern has not changed in October of this year, as the total amount of expiring options reaches $1.35 billion, impacting both assets.
Bitcoin has a put-call ratio (PCR) of 0.75 and there is a lot of interest in trading around the $63,000 level. This means investors are in quite a defensive mode. On the other hand, Ethereum has a healthier outlook than Bitcoin. The PCR is 0.68 and the maximum pain point is $2,500, indicating high investor confidence.
October 4th option delivery data
17,500 BTC options expired with a put-call ratio of 0.75, a maximum pain point of $63,000, and a notional amount of $1.07 billion.
119,000 ETH options expired with a put-call ratio of 0.68, a maximum payout of $2,500, and a notional amount of $280 million.
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 4, 2024
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However, in the past 24 hours, both cryptocurrencies have maintained not only growth but also stability. The value of Bitcoin increased by 2.59% in the past day, with a price of $62,267. Ethereum’s price also rose during the same period, trading at $2,420, up 2.8%. The current market capitalization is $291.42 billion.
These moves represent the redeployment of traders after contract expiration. It also expresses positive sentiment for the fourth quarter. This is based on past trends. These major digital assets are known to rise in the last months of the year.
US election predictions stir market sentiment
Additionally, the US election is another important event where financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, tend to experience volatility and speculative trading. Bitcoin’s open interest movement suggests that it is gearing up for a more range-bound move with expiration focus.
This could lead to increased trading levels and even price volatility, especially in the days leading up to the election. Nevertheless, the Ethereum market looks somewhat different from the overall positive sentiment of the Bitcoin market.
Sentiment on Ether is bullish given that a large portion of the company’s option contracts have expired and there are more calls than puts on option contracts. This concentration of option notional value and open interest towards year-end expiration points to the fact that investors will be bullish on ETH in the near future.
Will Bitcoin rally in October after last month’s strong close?
Moreover, the last positive close at the end of September also brought a positive conclusion for Bitcoin. It is not known to be a favorable month for Bitcoin. This month, often referred to as the “Uptober” by enthusiasts, has sparked speculation about the possibility of BTC reaching new heights.
Past performance also indicates that the outlook for October is very optimistic, raising expectations for significant returns from investors. According to some market experts and analysts, Bitcoin has a good chance of reaching over $100,000 by the end of the year.
However, not all market analysts believe in this point of view. Some experienced traders remain cautious, pointing out that Bitcoin needs to break through resistance levels to start a bullish trend. A recent analysis also revealed that BTC price could fall to $60,000 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
