The Vikings are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFC, and their offensive play has been a key factor in their early season success. Specifically, quarterback Sam Darnold’s performance has raised some eyebrows considering how he is expected to perform in 2024.
Drafted third overall in 2018, Darnold faced the challenge of becoming a franchise passer after the Jets traded up from the No. 6 slot. That proved to be the case with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (selected late in the first round that year), but he could develop into a long-term answer under center in New York. There wasn’t. The USC product was quickly used in a first-team role, compiling a 13-25 record while completing less than 60% of his passes in the process.
The Jets opted to reset at QB in 2021, selecting Zach Wilson as their starting pitcher that year, but they once again failed to find a solution at the QB spot. Darnold was given three draft picks by the Panthers, including a second-round pick the following year. This agreement showed he still had some value, albeit far less than what New York City originally invested in him. However, Darnold’s first season with the Panthers resulted in another losing record with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:13.
Baker Mayfield joined the team during the following offseason, and the top players from 2018 became starters for the start of the 2022 season. However, a week before Mayfield’s release request was granted, Darnold was reinstated as the Panthers’ starter. Carolina won four of the next six games, and Carolina posted triple-digit passer ratings four times. But the team was committed to a more permanent solution than Darnold, who is pending free agency. So Carolina embarked on a massive deal to acquire the No. 1 pick (Bryce Young), but this hasn’t gone according to plan so far, to say the least.
Darnold signed a one-year contract in 2023 as the 49ers’ backup. But Brock Purdy stayed healthy all season, so that was Darnold’s only start in a meaningless Week 18 contest. His San Francisco tenure didn’t have any eye-popping stats, but it was enough to draw interest from the Broncos and Commanders before a deal with the Vikings was made. The one-year contract was worth $10 million and was the second-best deal for a signal-caller on a backup/bridge starter contract, behind only Gardner Minshew.
First-round rookie JJ McCarthy entered training camp behind Darnold on the strength chart, putting the latter on track to handle first-team duty early in the 2024 season. However, McCarthy missed the entire season due to a torn meniscus, leaving Darnold to lead the offense that will no longer be led by Kirk Cousins. For a month, things were going so well that Pro Bowl tight end TJ Hockenson didn’t even make an appearance.
Darnold led the league in touchdown passes (11), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (118.9) early in the season. Those numbers, along with a career-high 68.9 completion percentage, helped him earn the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month award for September. If this trend continues, there will be a healthy free agency period next offseason.
Multiple front office sources predicted to Outkick’s Armando Salguero that the Vikings will look to keep Darnold in 2025, even though McCarthy is sticking to his rookie contract for the time being. If Minnesota’s offense continues to perform well, it will greatly increase Darnold’s negotiating power (not to mention helping head coach Kevin O’Connell’s chances of getting an extension with general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). If he performs well, Darnold could prove to be the league’s next Mayfield, a passer who can turn a one-year deal into a multi-year deal from a team. Mayfield appeared to be on track for free agency until he agreed to a three-year, $100 million contract with the Buccaneers in March that included $40 million in guaranteed money.
Given Darnold’s age, a similar deal could be in the cards if he maintains his encouraging performance over the next few months. McCarthy’s presence will complicate considerations on the Vikings’ part regarding a deal with Darnold for 2025 and (possibly) years beyond, but as always, many teams are in the market for a veteran passer in free agency. will enter the market. For companies that don’t believe they have a high first-round draft pick, a multi-year offer could be worth looking at.
Executives Salguero interviewed agreed that it was unacceptable for Darnold’s camp to exceed the $50 million-a-year threshold (similar to the last nine quarterback contracts). However, an AAV closer to the $30 million cap or the sub-$40 million point could be considered, depending of course on structure and guarantees. Especially if Justin Fields signs a new contract with the Steelers — which certainly seems possible at this point — Darnold is the clear top choice in free agency among veteran passers from Minnesota and other teams. will emerge as.
A regression in future games wouldn’t put Darnold in danger of losing his starting spot, but it would clearly hurt his market value. But as it stands, he’s on track to greatly benefit from a mid-career change in direction.
