Four mysterious accounts reportedly bet $30 million on Trump in November’s presidential election.
Bettors on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, have increased their bets that the Republican candidate will win the election in recent weeks.
Harris has a 2.5 point lead over Trump, according to an average of FiveThirtyEight national polls, but betting odds on Friday’s Polymarket are 39% for Harris, compared to 39% for Trump. It was 60%.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, shows a pro-Trump betting spree since October 7th (Polymarket)
Opponents were evenly matched in online markets until October 7, when the former president began making significant profits.
The outpouring of support for Trump, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, can be attributed to four Polymarket accounts: Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Together, these accounts reportedly bet tens of millions of dollars in cryptocurrency against Trump.
“There is strong reason to believe that these are the same entity,” Miguel Morell, founder of Arkham Intelligence, a company that analyzes blockchain and cryptocurrency activity, told the outlet.
Arkham discovered that all four of these accounts were funded by deposits from the US cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.
Cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket shows an increase in pro-Trump bets in recent weeks (Reuters)
Each of these accounts operates similarly, Arkham said, increasing the size of bets at the same time and betting that Trump will win battleground states and the general election.
Polymarket is investigating presidential election market activity, a person familiar with the matter told the Journal. The Independent has contacted Polymarket for comment.
Some people online are warning that if President Trump loses, he could use polymarket odds to claim the election was “rigged.”
Cryptocurrency investor Adam Cochran expressed similar sentiments to the Journal, warning that the rising odds in Trump’s favor could create a perception of pro-Trump momentum that contradicts polling. “This is the most efficient political advertising you can buy,” Cochran told the outlet.
The gambling spree also came a day after SpaceX founder and vocal Trump supporter Elon Musk pointed out Trump’s slim lead in the polymarket in a post on X. “Trump currently has a 3% lead over Kamala in the betting market. It’s more accurate than polls because there’s real money at stake.”
It’s unclear whether Musk’s post, which has been viewed 87 million times, led to prediction market bets.
