Ethereum is already facing strong selling pressure, with Ethereum price currently down to the $2,366 level, down nearly 10% on the weekly chart. Some market analysts believe that the ETH market crash has just begun and could drop another 50% according to logarithmic regression models.
Ethereum regression model suggests massive crash
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen uses a logarithmic regression model to show that every time Ethereum (ETH) breaks support against Bitcoin, the ETH/USD pair drops 70% to the lower trendline of the logarithmic regression. It explains that you are facing. To date, ETH has already fallen by 41%, raising concerns that a similar scenario will play out this year. Currently, ETH price is down 1.14% to $2,366, losing over $50 billion from its market cap over the past week.
Provided by: ETHUSD
Historically, such sharp declines have occurred in Q4 2016 and Q4 2019, suggesting a similar pattern may emerge in Q4 2024. .
While some market participants are optimistic about the potential for an ‘Uptober’ rally, some experts, such as Benjamin Cowen, warn that it would be wise to also consider downside risks. . “I think we’ll see a big drop to ~$1,200 by the end of the year, followed by a rebound into 2025,” Cowen warned in an August post.
This means Ethereum price could be preparing for another 50% correction from current levels. Some market analysts rejected Cowen’s analysis, saying it did not apply to the Bitcoin halving. In response, Cowen wrote:
“In the fourth quarter of 2016, ETH entered the halving regression zone. Honestly, the “But this is the year of halving!” argument is getting a little old. The same was true when ETH was $4,000, but it still fell to $1,900. ”
ETH price plummets due to declining investor sentiment
Earlier this week, Bitcoin and altcoins plummeted as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, defying everyone’s hopes for an “uptober” rally. Meanwhile, Ethereum ICO whales continue to sell their holdings, indicating that long-term investors are losing faith in the asset class.
Additionally, total inflows into Spot Ethereum ETFs have been boring as institutional investors prefer BTc over ETH in the current market uncertainty.
But despite this, co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been focused on the next big move within the ecosystem. The day before, he proposed cutting the minimum requirement for ETH staking in half to 16 ETH.
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Bhushan Akolkar
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a deep understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance led him to focus on the emerging blockchain technology and cryptocurrency market. He is passionate about continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he gains. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and sometimes hones his cooking skills.
Disclaimer: The content presented may contain the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market conditions. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication assumes no responsibility for your personal financial loss.
