Ethereum’s recent rejection of a key resistance area at the 100-day moving average suggests a false breakout and possible short-term correction.
However, crossing this threshold could trigger a bullish surge towards $3,000. Price is expected to consolidate with $2.4,000 as an important support level.
technical analysis
Written by Shayan
daily chart
Ethereum has recently seen a notable increase in demand and bullish momentum, with the asset testing a decisive 100-day moving average at $2,7,000 and a conclusive head-and-shoulders neckline at $2,6,000. We have just broken through the resistance area. Despite this short-term breach, ETH quickly faced rejection due to the large amount of supply at this level, causing the price to plummet below the 100-day moving average.
This false breakout signals a bullish trap and a possible downside consolidation correction period in the short term. Ethereum is trading between the 100-day moving average and the $2.5,000 support area, and a break above this resistance would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
4 hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum surged towards a key resistance zone separated by the 0.5 ($2.6 million) and 0.618 ($2,700) Fibonacci retracement levels, posing a major barrier for buyers. A break above this range could lead to large-scale short-term liquidations and further price increases. However, recent price movements indicate strong selling pressure near this area, resulting in a rejection and a halt to the bullish momentum.
If this selling pressure continues, Ethereum will likely enter a medium-term consolidation correction period targeting the lower bound of the flag pattern near the $2.4,000 threshold. Conversely, if buying pressure builds again and price breaks through the $2.7,000 resistance, the next target is likely to be the $3,000 real resistance, which is also in line with the 200-day moving average. I will.
On-chain analysis
Written by Shayan
The estimated leverage ratio is an important metric for evaluating the risk that futures market participants assume using leverage. A rise in ELR typically indicates an increase in leveraged positions, which can amplify market movements in either direction.
This indicator has been rising over the past few months, consistent with the overall downward price trend. This suggests that more traders are opening high-leverage short positions, betting on Ethereum’s further price decline. The market appears to be bearish on the future outlook for ETH, with many predicting further declines.
The futures market is currently believed to be overheated as leverage has reached worrying levels. This makes Ethereum vulnerable to a potential short squeeze event.
In such a scenario, if ETH rises unexpectedly, traders with short positions will be forced to cover their positions by buying back ETH, potentially causing an impulsive price spike. The 100-day moving average at $2.7,000 is a key resistance level. Exceeding this level could result in large-scale short-term liquidations, causing ETH prices to rise.
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