Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, Truth Social’s parent company, have soared over the past week as the betting market began to tilt toward former President Donald Trump.
Shares soared 4.8% on Friday and closed at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price.
This coincided with a significant improvement in the odds of Trump winning on top betting sites. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris was in the lead on PredictIt last weekend, but by Wednesday she was tied and passed by President Trump the next day.
Similarly, Harris had a slight lead in the October 4 poll, but lost it over the weekend, and Trump widened his lead over the next week. Currently, Trump has 55% of the vote and Harris has 44.7%.
And while Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump were roughly tied in Carsi, by midweek Mr. Trump had started to take the lead and now leads 53% to 47%.
Meanwhile, prominent data scientist and Northwestern University professor Thomas Miller also told Fortune magazine’s Sean Talley on Thursday that Trump’s odds have skyrocketed over the past week and now hold a two-vote lead in the Electoral College. he said.
He argues that models based on political betting data can make far better predictions than following individual polls.
National polls show that Harris maintains a narrow lead, with no dramatic reversal, but polls in key battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show that her lead has shrunk. However, other battleground states such as Georgia and the North show that Trump maintains a lead. Carolina.
Trump Media stock has soared already this year, serving as a barometer of Trump’s election prospects. Stocks soared again after the first debate between President Trump and President Joe Biden in June, and after President Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.
However, after Biden stepped down and Harris became his successor in the presidential race, Trump Media shares fell. Shares fell further last month as the end of the lock-up period approached, allowing company insiders to sell their shares.
And last month, President Trump said he would not sell his company’s stock, dampening speculation that he would cash out the stock to cover legal and campaign costs. Since hitting a low on September 23, Trump Media stock has soared 115%.
Trump owns about 59% of the outstanding shares, meaning his shares are now worth nearly $3 billion.
