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Sporting events, newspapers, and television networks regularly sponsor gambling platforms, and research and data increasingly show that these have a negative impact on Americans’ health and economic well-being. Even amateur competitions of various kinds are being bet on by strangers through streaming online platforms. It’s no surprise that some of the large sums of cash circulating in Internet gambling end up being used to bet on political outcomes.
Gone are the days when PredictIt, a pseudo-“stock market” for politics, was the only way to make extra money on elections, polls, and political wagers. The new political betting platform is Polymarket, which allows users to bet well above the $850 per contract cap set by PredictIt.
All bets on Polymarket are made using USDC, a cryptocurrency stablecoin whose value is pegged to the US dollar. Polymarket differs from casino gambling and traditional sports betting apps (although they are essentially the same) in that bets are placed on other users’ bets rather than against the house.
Polymarkets also differ from traditional gambling because many of the odds offered regarding political outcomes are not even remotely based in reality. Why evaluate poll tallies, weigh public opinion, analyze election trends and determine probabilities when you can simply add up the money placed on a virtual table by a group of crypto enthusiasts online? Will it do the work? Bucks County voters, buckle up. They spend thousands of dollars on Bored Ape JPEG, so we have to trust them.
And Republican operatives are doing just that. Polymarket odds and stake sums are being misinterpreted as “polls” by the credulous right-wingers, who have transferred this fundamental misconception to Republican presidential candidates. At a press conference in North Carolina on Monday, ostensibly to survey hurricane damage, Donald Trump likened the probability of a polymarket presidential ticket to a reliable poll, while also expressing his bewilderment at the whole thing.
Look, if you believe what’s happening in the polls, if you believe what’s happening, then there’s a new phenomenon happening in the polls. Now they call it betting voting. I don’t know, but people are betting on them. I don’t think that’s the right thing to do, but maybe it is. But one of them just came out. The biggest one is probably 63-33. That’s a pretty big margin. I don’t know if they know what they’re doing. I don’t know who they are, but this is a very large poll and they quote it all the time on TV.
Prominent figures on the right are also paying attention to Polymarket’s odds. Shock jock Steven Crowder posted on X: “No one has seen a lead like this in recent history.” Mr. Crowder is correct in one important respect. Hubert Humphrey and Dick Nixon never led each other in the online cryptocurrency gambling market. In 1968, the Internet was still 15 years away and cryptocurrencies were still more than 40 years away.
Mark Mitchell, head of polling at Rasmussen Reports, a flimsy polling firm whose staff regularly disputes the 2020 election results, says Trump has a significant lead in the polymarket battleground states. he posted.
These large margins in polymarkets make sense when you understand that Trump is backed by one of his most vocal proxies, Elon Musk, who also happens to be a prominent crypto supporter. That’s true.
Since Musk declared on Oct. 6 that the polls are “more accurate than polls because they involve real money,” his lead over Trump has widened to nearly 30 points. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows a dead heat with Harris leading by just under 1 percentage point.
The reality is that the presidential election is currently in a crowded state, as evidenced by actual public opinion polls. Now, I’m not trying to encourage anyone to develop bad habits. But the widening gap between Polymarket odds (based on bets placed by enthusiastic users) and odds derived from opinion polls makes it an interesting possibility for those who enjoy setting money on fire recreationally. Gender is born. For example, let’s say you thought Harris would pass you. If you bet $10,000 on that outcome today at Polymarket, you would have a profit of $27,293.48 after she wins, or $17,293.48.
Something a little safer, for example, if you bet that Biden will finish his term by January 20, 2025, you can make some quick cash with a very small profit (according to Polymarket’s current odds, Biden The probability of running is 89%) (through the tape). Of course, nothing is certain, but if you bet $10,000, you could earn more than $1,100 from that bet. (Minus the cost of the multivitamin you’ll end up mailing to him.)
Polymarket makes it easy to take advantage of this system, as these bets are often biased and do not match up with reputable polls and surveys. We spoke to one regular user who made hundreds of dollars betting on surefire bets during the Republican and Democratic National Conventions this summer. Was Michelle Obama planning to announce her presidential bid by August? Of course not. He won a few dollars on a $100 bet. But when an individual has an exorbitant amount of playing capital, like some particularly lucky or unscrupulous members of the cryptocurrency community, that person can easily win thousands of dollars with sure bets. Possibly.
The riskier bets include whether Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will shake hands during last month’s debate. Just before the candidates took to the stage, the polymarket probability was pegged at just 32%. (In the past two elections, candidates have either abandoned good sportsmanship or adhered to COVID-19 distancing rules.) Some users, including those I spoke with, walked away with thousands of dollars after Harris made a point of going to see Trump. Start shaking hands.
Non-American bettors are also getting involved. According to a recent Reuters report, four accounts (possibly backed by one person) bet millions of dollars on President Trump to win the election, potentially netting them $43 million in profits. .
Betting on anything can be very risky, but polymarket bias can make certain gambles no longer gambling at all. It seems safer than sports betting. I just hope a “Polymarket-sponsored Fox News Decision Desk” isn’t in our future, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it.
Those who saw Donald Trump’s staged drive-through shift at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania this week may have wondered if the business was allowing visitors. It turns out that the company did so, but at the same time claimed that their doors were open to everyone. Executives had agreed to invite Trump at the request of franchisees who wanted to invite him.
The memo from McDonald’s also declared that McDonald’s does not endorse political candidates, and Trump is no exception. Harris, who worked at McDonald’s when he was younger, could have taken shifts doing photography if he wanted to.
But anyone who knows the ins and outs of campaign finance knows that McDonald’s actually supports political candidates and organizations. McDonald’s is cutting checks to both parties through its corporate political action committee. They have extended their full support to members of the leadership, beef industry allies, and even the chair of the House Freedom Caucus.
Corporate PACs oversee money pooled from a company’s employees, which is then directed to the campaigns of allies in government. A small sample of McDonald’s donations this cycle includes:
Additionally, McDonald is a highly influential peddler in Washington. According to OpenSecrets, the company spent $1.4 million on lobbying in 2024 alone, with its biggest spending year occurring in 2023.
Companies use these corporate PACs because they need to maintain revenue. Trump’s staged visit and public invitation to Harris to do the same become a PR tool. In any case, McDonald’s customers aren’t going to start going to Burger King because of Trump Fries, no matter how polarizing they feel.
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