Important points
Canary Capital filed for a Litecoin (LTC) ETF on October 16th. Litecoin price is trying to regain the lost support level. Could LTC rise above this area towards $100?
Litecoin price struggled in 2024. Although the year started on a positive note, LTC has declined since April and moved out of its long-term support trend line.
However, there has been a backlash since August 5th. Combined with Litecoin’s positive news regarding the Spotlightcoin ETF filing, this could ultimately trigger a price increase.
Let’s analyze the price trend and see how likely this is.
Canary Capital Litecoin ETF
On October 16th, asset management company Canary Capital filed for the first Spotlight Coin ETF in the US. If approved, it could offer customers and institutional investors direct exposure to LTC.
According to its content, the ETF closely tracks the CoinDesk Litecoin Price Index. Canary Capital previously filed for an XRP ETF.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must respond to your application within up to 240 days. This means an approval decision must be made by June 2025.
The Grayscale Litecoin Trust currently exists for investors who want to take ownership of LTC without directly buying and holding it.
Three days earlier, on October 13th, Litecoin celebrated its 13th anniversary. Litecoin usage is at an all-time high, with 77 million transactions year-to-date, exceeding the previous record of 67 million for all of 2023.
Attempt to recover Litecoin
Litecoin weekly analysis shows that the price has broken below the May uptrend support trendline. This was a sign that Litecoin’s trend was becoming bearish.
However, after falling to a low of $49.80 in August, the price rebounded, forming a long bottom core (white icon) and regaining the $58 horizontal support area.
Today, Litecoin price has broken above the trend line and is trying to take it back as support. So far, the first attempt has failed (black icon).
LTC/USDT weekly chart |Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Technical indicators are at a critical level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 50 trendline from below, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has formed a bullish cross (black circle) but is below 0.
If the LTC price regains the trend line, the indicator may rise above the bullish threshold and confirm a bullish trend reversal.
LTC price hike?
Price trends and indicator readings are bearish, but wave numbers are bullish. The most likely count shows that LTC prices have completed 5 waves of rally and ABC correction since May 2022.
If this is true, Litecoin will start rising again soon. It is unclear whether this will be part of a long-term third wave or part of wave C in a different ABC structure.
LTC/USDT weekly chart |Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
Either way, it is likely to be an upward move of at least the same length as the previous one. If this happens, the LTC price could rise 100% to $140. Once there, the reaction will help determine whether the long-term trend is bullish or bearish.
On the other hand, if the price fails to regain the trend line, it could fall towards $48. At this point, that seems unlikely.
Critical resistance is right in front of you
After breaking below the rising support trend line, the LTC price will try to recover it. Although the indicator reading is inconclusive, the wave numbers suggest that LTC will successfully recover it and move higher towards the next target of $140.
Read more: Litecoin Price Prediction 2024: LTC Price Analysis
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial advice. We make no warranties as to the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. We recommend that you consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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