Every week, the picture of the College Football Playoff appears to be flipping in some way.
Week 8 did not disappoint. And considering how this season has played out, I don’t think there will be many weeks that will disappoint. Georgia rode into Austin and defeated No. 1 Texas, while Alabama lost to Tennessee and Indiana continued to climb up the ladder in playoff contention. Currently, the Hoosiers are in my bracket and the Crimson Tide is out.
Every Tuesday, I look at the teams whose stock has increased or decreased the most in the playoff picture, according to my predictive model. Due to the nature of the 12-team playoffs and the growing parity of the sport, no team is safe. Just ask Alabama. And the field is not yet set. In fact, heading into Week 9, my prediction is that only eight teams have a better than 52% chance of making the playoffs: Oregon State (96%), Miami (93%), and Georgia (93%). ), Ohio State (90), Penn State (90), Texas (75), Notre Dame (75), Clemson (64).
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In theory, at least four spots are wide open and 15 more teams have at least a 10% chance of making the playoffs. For now, let’s cover Indiana’s rise, Alabama’s fall, and some unexpectedly important games this weekend.
stock up
Indiana
This isn’t the first time Indiana’s name has appeared on this list, but the Hoosiers once again deserve accolades after crushing Nebraska 56-7. They are 7-0 for the first time since 1967, and my model predicts they have a better than 65 percent chance of winning every remaining game, except for the trip to Ohio State. This means they are in a pretty good position for a playoff bid after being completely off the map in preseason.
The wild card was quarterback Curtis Rourke, who led the way this season and was in the Heisman Trophy conversation, but was injured during the game against Nebraska. He ranks first in the FBS in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback and dropback completion percentage among eligible quarterbacks. The Ohio State transfer has been playing better than most, with Indiana leading the nation in scoring and playoff contention.
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The question is how long Rourke will be sidelined with his thumb injury. He will not play in Saturday’s game against Washington, but is expected to return later this season. Backup quarterback Taven Jackson finished the game for Nebraska by going 7-for-8 for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson will almost certainly be demoted, but the rest of the schedule could be manageable if he gets past Ohio State, especially considering Michigan’s struggles.
My model gives Indiana a 52% chance of making the playoffs, with the projected No. 10 seed facing No. 7 seed Texas.
indiana schedule
date team results
August 31st
W, 31-7
September 6th
W, 77-3
September 14th
W, 42-13
September 21st
W, 52-14
September 28th
West, 42-28
October 5th
W, 41-24
October 19th
W, 56-7
October 26th
November 2nd
November 9th
November 23rd
November 30th
Out of stock
Alabama
How quickly things change. After the win against Georgia, Alabama had a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into the Oct. 5 game against Vanderbilt, but just three weeks later that number had dropped to 49 percent. Texas’ loss to Georgia hurt (the Longhorns dropped from 94% to 75%), but the Crimson Tide’s drop hurt even more.
Saturday’s loss to Tennessee wasn’t all that surprising, but the loss to Vanderbilt certainly was. Even if Vanderbilt plays better and ranks in the Associated Press poll, this upset will be around for a long time. Alabama would advance to the playoffs if it wins, but it has lost two games through November for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut in 2007, leaving almost no margin for error.
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Alabama’s problems are not limited to one region. The defense was shattered against Vanderbilt. The offense was nowhere to be seen against Tennessee. The team also ranks 128th in penalty yards per game. I’m more concerned about the defense, and the games against Missouri State (Saturday) and LSU (Nov. 9) will be big for the Crimson Tide as they try to maintain their season in coach Karen DeBoer’s first season. It will be a test.
In my model, Alabama entered the bubble as the first team eliminated from the playoffs, with Tennessee moving into the bracket with a 50 percent chance of making the field (up from 31 percent last week).
Mountain West turns heads in playoffs
Boise State has been a Group 5 playoff participant in my prediction since the preseason, but Friday night (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) will test that status.
The Broncos travel to UNLV for a battle of the best two teams in the Mountain West. Boise State is favored by just three points, and the Broncos’ only loss comes on the road to Oregon State, so if they win, they should feel pretty good about where they stand. UNLV lost at home to Syracuse, and they have to peek over their shoulder that even if the Rebels win this weekend, other Group 5 teams like Army and Navy could leapfrog them. I think so.
If Boise State wins, its playoff odds increase from 33% to 55%, while UNLV drops to 17%. If UNLV wins, its playoff odds increase from 32% to 52%, but Boise State’s odds drop to 20%.
What if Navy wins against Notre Dame?
Navy is ranked No. 24 and will play a season-defining game this week against No. 12 Notre Dame in East Rutherford, N.J. (Saturday at noon, ABC). The undefeated Midshipmen have only a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs, but the fact that most of them play at Notre Dame this week and still have Tulane on the schedule and a possible AAC title game. is related to. Remember, the annual rivalry game against Army (which accounts for 28 percent of the CFP berths and also plays against Notre Dame) comes after the College Football Playoff Committee selects the bracket, so The game has no impact on the playoffs (although the two could meet for the conference title as well).
So how big of a hurdle is this for Navy?Right now, oddsmakers are projecting the Midshipmen to have just a 20% chance of beating Notre Dame. If they hit that 20 percent mark, Navy’s playoff odds would increase to 10 percent, while Notre Dame’s odds would drop from 75 percent to 38 percent. Notre Dame has already hurt NIU, and these numbers might make my predictions a little more optimistic. Either way, Navy has a chance to pull off its biggest win in a while in a game that has unexpected playoff implications for both teams.
(Photo of Omar Cooper Jr. and Jalen Milroe: Justin Casterline and Butch Dill/Getty Images)