The Spot Bitcoin ETF is roaring towards its best week in months, absorbing more than $1.8 billion as the 2024 presidential election tightens in its final weeks, according to CoinShares data. are.
“Elections are really at the forefront in terms of price performance,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, told Decrypt. “The macro data that has typically driven prices up suggests that Bitcoin prices should fall, but they haven’t fallen recently.”
Butterfill noted that data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday sent a bearish signal as building permits fell 2.9% month-over-month in September. Economists had expected a decline of 0.1%, gauging the strength of the U.S. housing market and economy.
An ABC/Ipsos poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 6 points a month ago, but this week’s poll shows Trump gaining momentum. It was done. The poll, conducted from October 4 to 8, found Harris’ approval rating among voters at 50%, while Trump’s approval rating was at 48%.
With 17 days left until Election Day, Butterfill said traders are likely supporting President Trump’s victory. Harris has recently made specific overtures to crypto holders, but said: “It’s clear that policy is much more favorable to Bitcoin under the Trump administration.”
The former president has embraced cryptocurrencies on the campaign trail for months, posing as a champion of digital assets. President Trump has made a number of crypto-specific promises, from supporting U.S. Bitcoin miners to saying he would fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler.
BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF alone saw more than $1 billion in inflows this week, making it the sixth-largest inflow week on record based on partial week data. But this trend is not limited to products from Wall Street giants, Butterfill said, with significant inflows from multiple asset managers.
“We are also seeing inflows at Grayscale,” Butterfill said, noting that Grayscale Bitcoin, which saw positive daily net inflows just 14 times before recording three consecutive days of inflows this week. You mentioned trust.
On Friday, the price of Bitcoin rose 2% to hit a two-month high just below $69,000. Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased 8.7% since Monday, indicating an increase in “basis trading” among financial institutions, Butterfill said.
By gaining exposure to Bitcoin’s spot price through an ETF while selling futures, the trade “tends to actually go up in times of very good price momentum,” Butterfill added.
In the poly market, the probability of Trump winning against Harris has ballooned to 60%. That’s up from 54% on Monday, and Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon told Decrypt in a statement that inflows have accelerated significantly as the platform’s gambling activity.
Evidence of Trump trading echoed Tom Dunleavy, a partner at crypto investment firm MV Global. He told Decrypt in a statement that Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been tracking Trump’s odds very closely over the past few weeks.
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the market views Trump’s victory as a very positive thing for the industry,” he said. “Inflows into Bitcoin have an almost one-to-one correlation with an increase in President Trump’s odds of winning.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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