Bitcoin soared 12% in mid-September as the betting market’s election odds for President Trump began to rise. Trump’s crypto-friendly stance has increased investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin as betting odds rise. Analysts predict that Trump’s victory could have a major impact on the future of the cryptocurrency industry.
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Investors are excited about the possibility of a “crypto president” in Donald Trump, with the price of Bitcoin soaring last month as the former president solidifies his position in the gambling market.
According to betting site Polymarket, the odds of Trump winning the November presidential election bottomed out on September 18th.
Since then, Bitcoin’s price has soared 12% and is just a few percentage points away from a new record high. The token was trading at $66,857 on Thursday afternoon.
Cryptocurrency gains accelerated in early October when Trump overtook Kamala Harris among bettors to become the favorite to win.
Markets are generally moving on the assumption that Trump will win next month, but Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are prominent in Trump’s trades.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller highlighted this dynamic in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, noting that the market seems “very confident that Trump will win.”
“You can see it in bank stocks and in cryptocurrencies,” he added.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chughani said last month that President Trump’s victory could be monumental for the crypto industry.
“Cryptocurrency is a rare example where a difference in the outcome of an election can determine the fate of an industry,” Chugani said, adding that he expects Bitcoin to soar to $90,000 if Trump wins. added.
Trump’s entry into the cryptocurrency industry has been years in the making.
The former president gave a 45-minute speech at a Bitcoin conference in July and has talked about crypto policy in nearly every speech since. He has also released several NFT collections in the past two years.
At the summer Bitcoin conference, Trump said he plans to “ensure that the United States becomes the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.”
Last week, President Trump participated in the launch of a crypto token called World Liberty Financial.
Bitcoin is up 59% since the beginning of the year and could ultimately be the frontrunner for a Trump victory in November.
“The election remains difficult to decide, but if you are long crypto here, you will probably be taking a Trump trade,” Chugani said.
But investors in the world’s largest cryptocurrency could themselves be getting ahead of themselves, as betting market websites like Polymarket aren’t a perfect indicator of election odds.
While polls show Trump’s odds of winning in November rose to 62% on Thursday, polls tell a very different picture. The election remains close and inconclusive, with both candidates virtually tied or within the margin of error in key battleground states, according to the latest polls.
Given the wide discrepancy between Trump’s betting market odds and the polls, someone placed a huge bet on Trump in an illiquid betting market to make it seem like Trump was likely to win the election. There is even speculation that it may be the case.
Speculation is swirling online over the identity of a single “whale” who placed $25 million in bets through multiple Polymarket accounts, single-handedly boosting the odds for Trump’s bets on the platform.
