XRPUSD 311024 daily chart
Bitcoin plummets after US labor market data
BTC joined XRP in negative territory on Wednesday, falling below the $73,000 handle. Better-than-expected US labor market data dampened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, impacting BTC demand.
ADP reported that employment rose by 233,000 in October, up from 159,000 in September. Economists had expected a more modest increase of 115,000 people. Tighter labor market conditions could lead to higher wages, accelerating consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. A higher outlook for inflation could make the Fed’s interest rate path less dovish.
The probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December fell from 74.1 on Oct. 29 to 69.7 on Oct. 30, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Inflows into the US BTC spot ETF market are notable for 6 consecutive days of inflows
On Tuesday, October 29th, the US BTC spot ETF market reported net inflows of $870.1 million, the largest since June 4th ($886.6 million). Importantly, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net inflows of $642.9 million. Expectations that Mr. Trump will win the US presidential election have increased demand for US BTC spot ETFs.
However, Wednesday’s labor market data slowed demand for US Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors:
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $12.6 million on Wednesday, October 30th (previous day: +$133.9 million). Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) had net inflows of $8 million. (Previous day: +29.2 million). The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $7.2 million. (Previous day: +$12.4 million). However, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net outflows of $23.9 million. (PD: +$52.5 million).
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data, the US BTC spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $21.3 million on October 30th. While inflows may return on Wednesday, October was impressive, with net inflows of $4,489.6 million in one day. The remainder will be the largest since March 2024 ($4,636.8 million).
A surge in demand for the BTC spot ETF supported the rally to $73,000 for the first time since March 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations
On Wednesday, October 30th, BTC fell 0.37% to close at $72,359, partially reversing Tuesday’s 4.11% rise. Importantly, BTC also ended its four-day winning streak.
On Thursday, October 31st, US economic indicators, including the Personal Income and Expenditure Report, are likely to impact BTC demand. Slowing inflation and trends in personal income and spending could raise expectations for Fed rate cuts in November and December. The Fed’s more dovish interest rate path and expectations for a soft landing for the U.S. economy could increase demand for riskier assets.
Market-favorable US data and a rally in the US BTC Spot ETF could push BTC past its all-time high of $73,808 and reach its $75,000 target.
