Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to hit a new all-time high (ATH) on the back of positive seasonality in Q4 2024 .
Is a new Bitcoin ATH on the horizon?
On October 28th, BTC soared above $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March of this year. Since then, BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold multiple times but has yet to set a new ATH.
Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH immediately after the US presidential election, according to a recent report from crypto trading platform Bitfinex. Bitcoin is often considered a “Trump trade” and has shown a strong correlation to Donald Trump’s election odds.
For example, BTC fell 6% last week before regaining all of its losses, coinciding with an increase in President Trump’s election odds on decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket.
As of this writing, Trump leads 66.1% of the time, with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show that the race remains close, and the election results are uncertain.
Source: Polymarket
The possibility of a Trump victory has spooked the options market. According to the report, short-term volatility may increase as election results approach, but the long-term bullish outlook for BTC remains unchanged. It says:
Options expiring on key dates around the election command higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at daily volume of 100 on November 8, just after Election Day, as the market moves toward potential This shows that they are preparing for a major disruption. While we remain confident in long-term price appreciation regardless of the election outcome, we expect short-term volatility to be higher than usual.
It is worth highlighting that BTC fell to $52,756 in September. But the premier digital asset rose nearly 30% in October, instilling some confidence in the “Uptober” story.
Seasonality is on Bitcoin’s side
The report highlights that BTC stands to benefit from “favorable seasonality in the fourth quarter.” Historically, the fourth quarter has been profitable for BTC during halvings, with a median quarterly gain of 31.34%.
The buildup of call options expiring on December 27th (especially with a strike price of $80,000) also reinforces the bullish outlook for BTC in Q4 2024. The report adds:
The market is showing signs of being poised for a post-election surge as options open interest rises to new highs, pushing Bitcoin towards and beyond an all-time high of $73,666. There is a possibility that it will rise.
In similar news earlier this month, cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research said recent positive developments in the FTX debacle are driving Bitcoin’s bullish development in Q4.
BTC is trading at $71,110 at the time of writing, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its current ATH. It remains to be seen whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face rejection again.
BTC is trading at $71,110 on daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
