British multinational bank Standard Chartered said that with just three weeks until the US presidential election, Bitcoin is on track to match its all-time high of nearly $73,800 due to several key factors.
In a note shared with Decrypt, Standard Chartered said the recent rise in Bitcoin prices is due to strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, new buying of up-priced BTC call options, and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Calci. He said it is being driven by President Donald Trump’s increased odds of winning.
“Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs now exceed $19 billion, equivalent to 315,000 BTC, as institutional investor interest continues to grow,” the report said.
Over the past week, an additional 1,500 BTC was added to the open interest of a $80,000 call option expiring on December 27, reflecting growing bullish sentiment among traders.
Analysts expect these inflows and derivatives positioning to support a steady rise in Bitcoin prices, with the next resistance level at $73,800 potentially broken before the election. . As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,000.
As the odds of President Trump winning the election increase, the correlation between Bitcoin and these political developments becomes more apparent. Polymarket currently shows that Trump has a 56% chance of winning, and that the conditional probability of a Republican landslide victory if Trump wins is 70%. “As President Trump’s odds improve, the bid in the crypto market has become even stronger,” analysts said.
President Trump’s victory is seen as beneficial for the digital asset market and could lead to a rise in Bitcoin in the short term. President Trump has portrayed himself as a crypto supporter despite his past negative comments about the industry, while his opponent Kamala Harris has only just begun to share her policy plans for digital assets. .
Another report from Bernstein Research echoes similar sentiments regarding the bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The firm noted that Bitcoin has risen 14% over the past month and is currently firmly above the $65,000 level. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs contributed significantly to this momentum.
“Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded massive inflows of over $550 million, the type of buying not seen in weeks,” Bernstein analysts said, adding that institutional investors He emphasized that demand is accelerating.
Bernstein also pointed to the growing legitimacy of the digital asset ecosystem, noting that global asset managers are laying the groundwork for broader participation by wealth advisors and private banks. “We believe this distribution base will be rewarded with accelerated inflows reflected in Bitcoin price movements,” the report states.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), often seen as a corporate proxy for Bitcoin performance, has also seen its NAV multiple rise in recent weeks, even as Bitcoin prices have remained relatively flat overall. I am doing it.
Michael Saylor’s company holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury reserve on the planet, holding 252,500 BTC (valued at $16.6 billion as of this writing). According to Standard Chartered, MicroStrategy’s share price typically serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin’s strength.
“The further increase in MSTR’s multiple is due to factors such as BNY Mellon being exempted from SAB 121, allowing MSTR to lend out its BTC holdings and earn yield on its 252,000 BTC holdings. “Possible,” analysts said.
MicroStrategy’s plan to become a “Bitcoin bank” by creating a Bitcoin capital markets product, as Saylor recently stated, is also starting to resonate with investors, sending the company’s stock price higher and increasing its financial assets. Confidence in BTC is increasing.
Standard Chartered believes the next 48 hours will be critical to ensuring that cryptocurrencies break out of a seven-month bearish trend. If successful, his next goal will be $70,000, which could be the highest ever as the U.S. presidential election approaches.
Bernstein’s report also highlighted that while Bitcoin miners are still underperforming the broader market, there could be significant upside potential as Bitcoin approaches new highs.
“For pure miners, a Bitcoin price above $74,000 is likely to be the tipping point where mining becomes very profitable,” Bernstein noted.
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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