TL;DR
Despite the recent volatility, several indicators suggest that BTC may be entering a bullish phase. However, one key factor suggests an intensification of the short-term rebound.
Is “Uptober” still on the cards?
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced severe volatility since early October, performing worse than some expected. After all, this month is a historically strong period for the entire crypto industry, and is therefore known throughout the community as “Uptober.”
BTC is currently trading just south of $61,000, down 5% in 10 days. But several key indicators suggest a resurgence may be on the horizon.
BTC price, source: CoinGecko
According to CryptoQuant, outflows on BTC exchanges significantly exceeded inflows last week. As seen in the chart below, the past few days have witnessed the emergence of a giant red candle, indicating a possible transition from centralized platforms to self-managed methods. This could be seen as a bullish sign as it reduces immediate selling pressure.
BTC Exchange Netflow, Source: CryptoQuant
Next on the list is BTC MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which has recently fallen below 2. Values below that mark typically indicate the market is in an accumulation phase, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Last but not least, let’s touch on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Momentum Oscillator, which measures the speed and change in price movements, approached the bullish zone of 30 on October 9th and currently sits around 38. At the moment, the “near buy” signal is flashing.
Something for the Bears too
In contrast to the aforementioned factors that suggest a possible price recovery, there are also factors that suggest the opposite scenario. According to X user Ali Martinez, this is an increase in activity by whales who have sold or redistributed 30,000 BTC (worth almost $1.9 billion) in the past 72 hours.
This development could increase the circulating supply of major cryptocurrencies, leading to a sharp fall in valuations (assuming demand cannot keep up with the pace).
Furthermore, the actions of such large investors can cause panic among small investors, causing them to dump their holdings and accelerate their withdrawal.
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